Most of the focused deterrence evaluation literature compares outcomes across aggregate-level units of analysis (e.g., neighborhoods or cities). To our knowledge, only three studies analyzed individual-level outcomes: the randomized controlled trial evaluating Project HOPE (Hawken and Kleiman 2009), a quasi-experimental evaluation of a focused deterrence program in Glasgow, Scotland (Williams et al. 2014), and a quasi-experimental study in Chicago (Wallace et al. 2016). The Project HOPE evaluation found substantially lower recidivism rates among Hawaii probationers randomly assigned to a treatment group involving swift, certain, and graduated sanctions than among probationers subject to standard supervision procedures. Replications of Project HOPE in other sites have produced less favorable results (Nagin 2016).
