Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual-level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety

Using variation in the timing of 24/7’s implementation across counties in an instrumental variable bivariate probit model, we find strong evidence that 24/7 participation reduced criminal activity at 12 months after the initial arrest, and perhaps longer. These findings provide support for ‘swift-certain-fair’ approaches to applying sanctions in community supervision. They also provide policymakers with evidence for a new approach to reduce criminal activity among those whose alcohol use leads them to repeatedly threaten public health and safety.
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While our results on criminal recidivism are striking, their importance extends beyond how we address DUI offenders. The growing bipartisan support for reducing reliance on long prison sentences to address nonviolent crime suggests there will be more reliance on probation and other forms of community supervision. Advances in technology will continue to make it easier and cheaper to monitor and detect violations (e.g., substance use, curfews, other place-based restrictions, interactions with others under community supervision, and possibly even firearm usage). For example, Loeffler (2014) demonstrates the feasibility of using wearable accelerometers to detect signals that correspond to firearm usage. Ultimately, the ability to deter violations depends on how this information is used. To this end, deterring violations with SCF sanctions may be a promising approach for these opportunities.