Using a Natural Experiment to Measure the Impact of Swifter Punishment on Criminal Recidivism

Objectives: Measure the impact of swifter punishment on the timing of first imprisonment and on criminal recidivism among young violent offenders.
Methods: A policy reform in 1994 promoted swifter case processing for violent offenders in Denmark. I exploit Danish administrative data and this policy reform as a natural experiment to measure the impact of swifter punishment on the timing of first imprisonment and on criminal recidivism among young men before and after the reform (N = 521).
Results: The reform promoted faster case processes and thereby also affected the timing of first imprisonment. It also led to more criminal recidivism, both regarding the probability of new charges and the average number of new charges.
Conclusions: When imprisonment happens matters for youth recidivism, a conclusion that has implications for our understanding of the relationship between deterrence and the timing of punishment. Implications of the study are limited by its historical and cultural context, and future research should validate the findings in other and more recent contexts.