A better way for Democrats to talk about rising crime

But if progressives are wrong about the problem, conservatives are wrong about the solution; too often, they try to deter crime through ever-harsher punishment. Yet crime and public disorder are generally the product of people who have poor impulse control and short time horizons, often because of underlying mental illness or substance abuse problems.
For them, a 1-in-1,000 chance of a five-year prison term doesn’t necessarily offer much more deterrence than a 1-in-1,000 chance of a one-year term—and a 50 percent chance of one night in jail, or a month under house arrest, might well be more effective than either of the more severe, but less likely, punishments. This suggests a potential platform for the Democratic Party that combines compassion for victims with mercy for offenders: ease the severity of punishment, but increase its likelihood.
What would that mean in practice?
Instead of defunding the police, re-fund the police, putting more cops on the beat and improving training. Instead of refusing to prosecute low-level property crimes, add prosecutors and courts so that those crimes can be adjudicated immediately, and light but swift punishment dispensed. Build robust alternatives to incarceration—treatment diversion, intensive probation, house arrest—but understand that those programs often get more effective when judges have the power to dispense a couple of nights in jail when offenders violate the conditions of their release. Provide more treatment beds for substance abusers and the mentally ill, but make it clear that camping on public sidewalks is not a viable alternative to getting clean or taking antipsychotics.