Most of the focused deterrence evaluation literature compares outcomes across aggregate-level units of analysis (e.g., neighborhoods or cities). To our knowledge, only three studies analyzed individual-level outcomes: the randomized controlled trial evaluating Project HOPE (Hawken and Kleiman 2009), a quasi-experimental evaluation of a focused deterrence program in Glasgow, Scotland (Williams et al. 2014), and a quasi-experimental study in Chicago (Wallace et al. 2016). The Project HOPE evaluation found substantially lower recidivism rates among Hawaii probationers randomly assigned to a treatment group involving swift, certain, and graduated sanctions than among probationers subject to standard supervision procedures. Replications of Project HOPE in other sites have produced less favorable results (Nagin 2016).
Posted on by Kelly Smith